A by-election takes place this month for one of the two Longwell Green seats on South Gloucestershire Council.
Five candidates will be on the ballot paper on July 23 for the contest, which has come about because of the resignation of Conservative Councillor Kris Murphy.
And, while the current national focus is on the change of Prime Minister, this by-election has been described as “a prelude to one of the most thrilling chapters in South Gloucestershire’s electoral history”.
Councillor Murphy is giving up the role he has held for three years because he has joined the Royal Navy.
“The operational commitments and statutory requirements of full-time military service mean it is both legally and practically impossible for me to continue constitutional duties and maintain my role within local government,” he says in his resignation letter.
Bidding to replace him as the Tory councillor is Graham Hardwell, a member of Oldland Parish Council. The Lib Dem candidate is Jim Corrigan, a South Glos resident for more than 40 years while the Greens have selected Rachael Ward. Labour’s choice is Jack Friend and Reform’s is Stephen Burge.
James Hinchcliffe, a commentator for public affairs firm JBP, says the contest could provide clues to the outcome of elections for the whole council in a year’s time because of the influence of a “turquoise wave” from Reform.
In a blog entitled “Safe Tory suburbia never looked so interesting” Mr Hinchcliffe writes: “On paper, the ward is classic Conservative territory, with the electoral results to prove it. In the 21st century, the Tories have won every local council seat here and usually with convincing ease.”
But, he continues, “The question is not whether Reform UK can win in LG. It is the extent to which they disrupt what would normally be a routine Tory win, whether by winning outright or by taking a significant share of the vote.”
Mr Hinchcliffe says a likely swing to Reform could take votes from the Conservatives, allowing the Lib Dem to squeeze through the middle and win.
“This by-election feels like the prelude to one of the most thrilling chapters in South Gloucestershire Council’s electoral history,” he concludes.
Councillor Murphy’s letter expresses his regret: “Stepping down brings a genuine sense of sadness. It has been a distinct privilege to represent the residents of Longwell Green, and I am incredibly grateful for the time I have spent serving the community.
“I would like to think that, through working with local residents, we managed to move the needle and make the everyday lives of people in the local area a bit better.
“While it is difficult to close this chapter, I am exceptionally optimistic about the future. It has been an honour to serve people at the local community level, and I now take on the responsibility and honour of serving the country on a national scale.”
Full details about the by-election can be found at: https://beta.southglos.gov.uk/current-and-upcoming-elections/
The JBP blog is at https://jbp.co.uk/longwell-green-safe-tory-suburbia-never-looked-so-interesting/